Britain in numbers

  1. Economy
September 23, 2024

Business confidence in Labour remains high

Finally, some rare good polling news for Keir Starmer's party.

By Ben Walker

Footage by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

We’re seeing a pretty dramatic decline in positive feeling towards both Keir Starmer and the Labour brand. Which makes Savanta’s fresh poll of business leaders a rare bright spot for the government. Business leaders are more optimistic than pessimistic about what Labour will do for them by a margin of 46 per cent to 31 per cent. As many expect the government will be a net positive for the country. And a majority believe the new government will “create a favourable environment for business”, at 54 per cent, compared to 27 per cent who believe they will create an unfavourable environment.

Medium and large businesses are the most enthused about Labour (72 per cent are optimistic). But just 48 per cent of small business leaders expect good to come from the Labour government. This does, mind you, compare to the smaller 31 per cent of small businesses who expect Labour to actively harm them.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta notes that these findings are fairly consistent with how businesses viewed Labour at the election. “I’d wager that, for now, the good continues to outweigh the bad for business leaders, and much of the ‘bad’ – such as workers’ rights reforms – they knew was coming anyway,” he says.

It’s annoying to concede the existence of “vibes” as a serious metric in economics and politics. But the vibe from businesses is that they expect Labour to be a net good. The willingness from business to generate a recovery under Labour is there. But for the voters, the primary issue is this: will it be felt? “Change begins” is the slogan of Labour conference. But change for who? Right now Labour is pushing the “tough choices” narrative. But voters feel as though they have been facing tough choices for years. Labour will struggle to sell themselves as the change government so long as they continue with this line.

Savanta interviewed 1,000 UK business decision makers on 8-28 August 2024. Respondents are owners and directors for small businesses, and senior managers or upwards for medium and large businesses.