No Tory councils here – our forecast for the 2025 English Local Elections
The Conservatives can expect a bad night. But all eyes are on Reform.
By
Follow @bnhwalker
Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects.
The Conservatives can expect a bad night. But all eyes are on Reform.
By Ben WalkerUxbridge, Mid Bedfordshire and Selby are all up for grabs this summer.
By Ben WalkerAs the economy improves, immigration becomes a bigger issue for voters
By Ben WalkerThe broad contours of this election are easy to predict. The scale of Tory freefall remains uncertain.
By Ben WalkerGeneral elections are more than personal popularity contests.
By Ben WalkerConstituency visits can tell us a lot about a party's electoral strategy.
By Ben WalkerThe party's foundations are not as sturdy as the numbers imply.
By Ben WalkerThe return of Nigel Farage is enough to tip the balance.
By Ben WalkerThough polls almost always narrow just before an election, 2024 is not normal.
By Ben WalkerThe definitive forecast model – how the country will vote according to Britain Predicts
By Ben Walker