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March 16, 2022

Is Labour ready to win elections again?

See how Labour stacks up on the key indicators of whether a party will win or lose the next election

The latest polls

In 2010 through to 2015, Labour had a lead in the opinions polls. At some stages those leads were as big as 12 percentage points, enough to give the party a landslide victory. Yet it was not to be. The Conservatives won the 2015 general election with a substantial lead over Labour in the popular vote.

Opinion polls tell you which party is in the lead, but they should not be taken as the sole predictor of election results. What you also need is an understanding of some “fundamental” indicators of public opinion that can show how “healthy” that lead may be. Labour may be ahead, but is its leader ahead, too? And how does that leader stack up against the incumbent prime minister? Not only that, but does Labour command credibility on the ever-present issue of the economy?

In Britain, to tip the scales in your favour it is vital that you lead not just in the opinion polls, but the indicators, too.

As the 2015 election campaign wore on, Ed Miliband's Labour Party commanded small, but solid, leads over the Conservatives. His personal ratings, when put up against David Cameron, however, were dire. On very few occasions did Miliband lead Cameron when it came to the public's preference for prime minister, or indeed general feelings of favourability.

Over time this page will track Labour's advantage over the Conservatives, or lack thereof, on these fundamental indicators.

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