Tamworth’s the by-election which will tell us everything
As a Leave-voting seat which turned Tory in 2010, it acts as a barometer for post-Brexit Britain.
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The fall of Brand Sunak
The PM was popular because he broke with the status quo. Polling suggests he’s now become the status quo.
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Who will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?
A Labour gain in the SNP-held seat is likely but not certain in the febrile Scottish political climate.
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Why are the polls overestimating Reform?
The successor to the Brexit Party isn’t as popular as it appears – but the Tories aren’t benefiting in elections.
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Forget New Labour, meet Median Labour
Keir Starmer’s relentless focus on the average voter is working as an electoral strategy – but it may not work…
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Who will win the Somerton and Frome by-election?
The Liberal Democrats would have to do something very, very wrong to lose the Somerset seat to the Tories.
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Who will win the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election?
Labour may start the favourite in the race for Boris Johnson’s former seat but electoral hazards remain.
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Would Labour really win Mid Bedfordshire?
An array of unusual factors mean Keir Starmer’s party could take Nadine Dorries’ rural seat.
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